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OZAY MEHMET
A bold prediction may be in order: if Mehmet Ali Talat is defeated in the upcoming presidential elections in the north, the bigger loser will be Demetris Christofias. With Dervis Eroglu, the current front-runner replacing Talat, it is unimaginable that Christofias will be able to continue business-as-usual for a “made in Cyprus” solution of the Cyprus Problem.
More realistically, the Christofias image will receive a mortal blow. Not just in Nicosia, but beyond and his skills as a negotiator will vanish. He will be sidelined in EU circles as well as the UN. There is only so much foreign diplomats and mediators can do. There is also a limit to how much pressure can be put on Turkey, who, for Greek Cypriots appears as the real obstacle in the way of a settlement, not the Turkish Cypriots!
In actual fact, however, Ankara’s game plan for the upcoming EU Summit next month is already declared. It may disappoint the Greek Cypriot leadership – if pushed to choose between Cyprus and the EU, Ankara would opt for the former. This much was declared just last week by Yasar Yakis, a key advisor to the Erdogan government on EU policy. Yakis’ declaration was confirmed almost immediately by Cemil Cicek, the deputy Prime Minister.
At the moment, the Erdogan government is backing Talat, keeping a cool distance from Dervis Eroglu. Ankara’s position is perfectly understandable.
PM Erdogan wants a Cyprus settlement. Even though for nationalists in north Cyprus and Turkey, Talat may seem a weak bargainer, willing to make big concessions in negotiations with Christofias, Ankara will be happy to see an early settlement, certainly before the presidential elections. Erdogan backed the Annan Plan, and will endorse a similar one emerging from the Talat-Christofias talks. That would speed up Turkey’s EU accession. The immediate task is to unblock new chapters of the acquis communautaire.
As well, Erodogan has his own domestic agenda. With the Kurdish issue now an integral part of further democratisation in Turkey, he would love to strengthen his hand both against the nervous Turkish military and amongst the voters, many still hurt by the global economic crisis.
But, no doubt, there is a limit to how much Ankara and Turkish Cypriots can concede. One thing is certain: no one can turn the clock back to before 1974. As a result, what Talat may be able to give may fall short of the minimum demands of Christofias and the Greek Cypriot extremists or special interest groups.
For example, on the sticky property issue, a Christofias gambit to negate the “bi-zonality” pillar of the UN Peace Plan by demanding complete repossession of former Greek Cypriot property in the north, would amount to a recipe for disaster. It would definitely produce a Talat defeat in the Spring 2010 elections.
The bitter fact is that, in that eventuality, Talat would not be the only loser. Christofias’s loss would be even greater. The “Made in Cyprus” formula would come to a sudden end, and Christofias would have virtually no one to negotiate in Nicosia, his goodwill in the EU and UN will hit rock-bottom. He would become a one-term president!
Hopefully, in the few months remaining, cooler heads will prevail and rational choice will win. A “Made in Cyprus” settlement based on genuine equality is the rational choice.
Ozay Mehmet is Professor Emeritus of International Affairs at Carleton University, Canada
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