The world will use more fuel in the fourth quarter of 2009, marking the first time global oil demand has risen since the second quarter of 2008, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.
After a year-on-year contraction in demand for the first three quarters, its monthly report found fuel consumption was edging higher in the final three months of the year.
The Paris-based adviser to 28 industrialised economies raised its global oil demand estimate compared with last month's report for all of 2009 by 210,000 barrels to 84.8 million barrels per day (bpd), following a strengthening of the world economy.
Asia leads the rebound in growth. Consumers in developed countries, where economies remain fragile, are more sensitive to high prices, with signs of demand destruction when the barrel price rises above $80, said David Fyfe, head of Oil Industry and Markets Division at the IEA.
"If prices keep rebounding, there's a risk to the global economy as a whole, even to some of those economies in the Far East and even the Middle East," Fyfe said.
Next year world oil demand is expected to average 86.2 million bpd, following stronger-than-expected preliminary data in North America and buoyant demand in non-OECD Asia and the Middle East, the IEA said.
The oil market edged below $79 a barrel on Thursday, within sight of a year-high of $82 touched in October. The price is still only just above half last year's record of above $147 touched in July.
RELATIVELY BULLISH
The IEA is more bullish about the prospects for oil consumption than the two other major oil forecasters, the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which released reports earlier this week.
OPEC raised its 2010 demand forecast slightly but said fuel consumption may not return to pre-crisis levels, and the IEA predicted less of a rise in 2010 in demand in the United States, the world's largest energy user.
Oil inventories in OECD countries are still swollen, although they eased to the equivalent of 60 days forward demand cover at the end of September, down from 60.9 days at the end of August.
OPEC pumped more in oil in October than in September — taking its compliance with promised curbs down to 61 percent from 64 percent, the IEA said.
