OPEC oil supply fell in October, the first decline since April, as lower output from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Nigeria offset a further rise from Angola, a Reuters survey showed on Monday.
Supply from the 11 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with output targets eased to 26.38 million barrels per day (bpd) from 26.40 million in September, the survey of oil firms, OPEC officials and analysts found.
The survey suggests OPEC has made 63 percent of promised supply cutbacks, in line with September. Oil has recovered to almost $80 a barrel, up more than 70 percent this year, in part because of lower supply from the producer group.
"Given that prices have recovered quite rapidly, OPEC's focus is likely to start considering managing the upside, whereas so far this year, the focus has naturally been on defending the downside," said Amrita Sen, analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
"We don't think there will be uncontrolled slippages from the three producers with most of the spare capacity — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates — as these are the policy stalwarts within the group."
OPEC has agreed to cut supply by 4.2 million bpd since September 2008 due to falling demand and prices. It has kept official output targets unchanged at meetings this year and holds another gathering on Dec. 22 in Angola.
Supply was 1.54 million bpd higher in October than the implied target for the OPEC 11 of 24.84 million bpd, the survey found, meaning the group lowered output by 2.66 million bpd of the promised curbs.
That gave the 63 percent compliance rate, unchanged from September. The October survey breaks, for now, a trend of rising output which started in May.
Adherence peaked at 81 percent in April and March, according to Reuters estimates, but it remains higher than the historical average of 60 percent. Oil prices extended an earlier gain after the survey was released and as of 1304 GMT U.S. crude was up 76 cents at $77.76. It reached a 2009 high of $82.00 in October.
SAUDI SUPPLY
Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Iraq led output lower in October, the survey found.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC's top producer, lowered supply by 50,000 bpd as it reduced fuel use in domestic power plants.
Output from other core Gulf OPEC members Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates remained steady. The survey found no evidence to suggest they were pumping more crude to capture the benefit of higher prices.
Algeria and Libya are also keeping a lid on supply, according to sources at companies who buy their crude.
Nigerian supply, which climbed in September after a lull in disruptions caused by militant attacks, edged lower in October. Crude streams including Bonny and Agbami shipped fewer barrels.
The decreases offset a further jump in supply from Angola, which pumped 1.93 million bpd in October, a 2009 high, worsening compliance with its output target.
Iran, the second-largest OPEC producer, lowered supply slightly, but pumped 410,000 bpd above its OPEC target, the most in absolute terms of any member.
Iraqi output slipped because of a one-week shutdown of its pipeline to Turkey that ended earlier on Monday. The halt in pumping delayed some exports, shipping industry sources said.
The 12 members pump more than a third of the world's oil.
Following is oil output in millions of barrels per day.
October September Implied total Implied
output output cut* target Algeria 1.25 1.25 0.2 1.2 Angola 1.93 1.85 0.24 1.52** Ecuador 0.47 0.47 0.07 0.43 Iran 3.75 3.77 0.56 3.34 Kuwait 2.26 2.25 0.37 2.22 Libya 1.55 1.55 0.25 1.47 Nigeria 1.90 1.94 0.32 1.67 Qatar 0.75 0.75 0.12 0.73 Saudi Arabia 8.05 8.1 1.32 8.05 UAE 2.24 2.26 0.38 2.22 Venezuela 2.23 2.21 0.36 1.99 OPEC 11 26.38 26.40 4.2 24.84 Iraq 2.47 2.5(R) TOTAL OPEC 28.85 28.90(R) Overproduction 1.54 1.56 Cut achieved 2.66 2.64 Compliance 63 percent 63 percent
(R) = Revised
*Includes cut of 2.2 million bpd starting from Jan. 1, 2009 and 2 million bpd of previously agreed curbs. The breakdown comes from an OPEC document obtained by Reuters during OPEC's December 2008 meeting and was not officially released by OPEC.
**Angola says its target is 1.656 million bpd. OPEC has not clarified whether this or 1.52 million bpd is Angola's target.
OPEC quotas exclude condensate and natural gas liquids and apply to supply rather than wellhead output, defined to exclude movements to, but not sales from, storage. Saudi and Kuwaiti data includes Neutral Zone. Saudi data excludes oil produced for Bahrain. Venezuelan data includes upgraded synthetic oil.
