By Adam Cox
Between navigating the European Union's economic crisis and paving the way for success at a make-or-break climate summit, Sweden faces some daunting tasks as it takes on the EU presidency next month.
But the Nordic country of just 9 million people — home to less than 2 percent of the 27-nation group's population — is hoping size does not matter when it comes to a range of challenges, from swollen deficits to efforts to widen the bloc.
History may be on its side.
"I've been covering EU affairs for a long time and I'd say it's generally true that small countries often run successful presidencies," said Jacki Davis, communications director at the European Policy Centre, a Brussels-based think-tank.
For small countries this is a moment in the limelight so they put in extra effort, Davis said. Second, they can be better at listening and brokering, key skills for an effective stint.
Diplomats and observers believe Sweden will also prove adept because of its penchant for quiet diplomacy and an ice-in-the-veins approach to doing business.
Coming after a gaffe-prone Czech presidency which suffered from a domestic political crisis, analysts say the Swedish presidency could stand in stark contrast.
So do not expect Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt to talk about how U.S. President Barak Obama is on a "road to hell" as the previous Czech prime minister infamously did.
EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED
As always, there is the risk the agenda gets hijacked.
"The biggest issues as defined by the Swedish presidency are bringing the economy back on its feet and climate change," said Katinka Barysch, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform in London. "Will they be allowed to focus on that?"
That depends on whether they also have to deal with an escalation of political turmoil in Iran, a "no" vote in Ireland to the Lisbon Treaty, a Russia-Ukraine gas crisis or any one of a number of possible flareups.
"One of the things about presidencies, it's not about things you can prepare for, it's about things you can't," added Davis.
If the Irish were again to reject the Lisbon Treaty, designed to modernise the bloc's institutions and which leaders have laboured hard to push through, it would be devastating.
"Paradoxically, the thing I think the Swedish presidency will be defined by is the thing that is least in their control and that is the Lisbon Treaty," Davis said.
EU leaders agreed this month to provide legal guarantees for Ireland on some sensitive issues in order to help secure a yes vote in a referendum now slated for October. The treaty, which allows for a beefed up foreign policy role by the EU among other things, needs to be ratified by all member states.
Reinfeldt, in a Reuters interview, did not even want to talk about the Irish outcome. "I've been in politics long enough to not think out loud about things like that," he said this week.
What he will talk about is the enormous financial task ahead. Reinfeldt sounded the alarm over soaring debt in Europe and said he would push leaders to map out deficit-fighting plans during the presidency, a marked shift in emphasis for the EU after a series of massive stimulus packages.
While debt levels are a new priority, there is another issue that has been on Sweden's mind for a long time: climate change.
Ahead of the year-end Copenhagen climate summit, which aims to strike a deal on emissions, Sweden will push for unity among member states, said Barysch of the Centre for European Reform.
Davis said a key issue will be how much developed nations will be prepared help the developing world. "The EU did not really discuss this at the summit last week and it needs to decide what it is prepared to offer developing countries."
For all its admirers, Sweden is not without its critics. "I think the government's ambition is way too high, especially when it comes to climate change," said Dick Erixon, a former Swedish politician who writes one of Sweden's most-read political blogs.
