The ranks of unemployed in China are likely to rise next year as the impact of the global economic crisis starts to bite in the world's most populous country.
Stabilising the jobless rate is the government's top priority, the social security minister said this week, as the stability-obsessed Communist Party seeks to head off strikes and protests it fears could threaten its rule. Here are some questions and answers on China's unemployment figures, and why the government is so worried.
WHAT IS THE CURRENT JOBLESS FIGURE AND HOW FAST IS IT RISING?
— The official unemployment rate is about 4 percent, but that is expected to rise to around 4.5 percent by the end of the year. However, the real figure is likely to be higher as many of the country's more than 200 million rural migrant workers, who have flocked to the cities in recent years, are not registered.
HOW MANY NEW JOBS ARE NEEDED EVERY YEAR?
— The government estimates that 24 million new urban jobs are needed every year, though there are only half that number available. Yet there is also a big problem with lack of skilled workers as China tries to move up the production value chain.
WHY IS THE GOVERNMENT WORRIED?
— In a word — stability. The Communists came to power in 1949 on the back of widespread corruption, out-of-control inflation and massive social upheaval. Those memories die hard.
The last thing Beijing wants to see now is more unrest in a country where graft has returned with a vengeance alongside a widening rich-poor gap, growing numbers of disputes over land and restless minorities in strategic border regions like Tibet and Xinjiang.
WHAT EVIDENCE IS THERE THAT LABOUR UNREST IS WIDENING?
— So far protests have only been sporadic, and no worse than unrest connected with more local disputes not directly related to the global economic slowdown, such as riots in northwestern Gansu province this week over a resettlement plan.
Labour problems have been concentrated in export dependent and formely booming coastal provinces, mainly in Guangdong, where hundreds of workers have rallied in recent weeks demanding unpaid wages from shuttered factories.
There have also been taxi strikes in at least three cities over high rental fees and competition from unlicensed cabs. In eastern Jiangsu province workers at a diesel plant blocked highways and surrounded government offices amid concerns over job security.
WHAT IS THE GOVERNMENT DOING ABOUT LABOUR UNREST?
— Trying to head it off a soon as it arises, and not overreacting by sending in riot police at the first sign of trouble.
Some provinces are demanding that companies seek government permission before laying off workers, and others have stepped in to pay off wages owed to employees.
A huge, 4 trillion yuan ($585.2 billion) government stimulus package to boost domestic demand could also help alleviate the jobless situation, Beijing hopes.
This week public security chief Meng Jianzhu called on police to "let the people know the authority and dignity of the law and meanwhile make them feel the care and warmth from public security authorities".
But how much money the government can afford to spend to buy off protesters and how long the police can restrain themselves if the jobless numbers jump and unrest spreads are open questions.
