Reduction in the per capita GNP of Turkish Cypriots

…due to the higher population shown in their 2006 census

 

By Nicos Vassiliou

Economist / Consultant NV Consultants

 

The recently published results of the Population Census held by Turkish Cypriots on April 30, 2006, creates a set-back to the cause of bridging the economic gap as measured by the per capita GNP (Gross National Product).

The results show that on the date of the Census the de facto population in northern Cyprus (the occupied part) was 265.100 and the de jure population 256.644. The de jure definition is normally the one used for estimating per capita national product or income.

According to the official statistics of the Turkish Cypriot Planning Office, in 2005 their population was 200.289. This gives the erroneous picture that, over a 10-month period (mid-year 2005 to 30th April 2006), “the population increase” was 16,5% in comparison to population growth rates of 1,0 -1,2% p.a. they record in their statistics over the period 1996 – 2005. Strictly speaking, in order for the census figures to be comparable they should be adjusted to mid-year 2006 levels.

While awaiting the requisite official adjustments to mid-year levels for 2006, our preliminary estimate is that the Turkish Cypriot per capita GNP for 2005 “will drop” from US$10.567 to about US$9.165. This compares with about US$21.635 (CYP 9.834) in the areas controlled by the Republic of Cyprus. Similar downward adjustments should be made to the Turkish Cypriot population and per capita GNP time series at least for the period ever since their 1996 census. Preliminary estimates suggest that in 2006 the per capita GNP levels will be: Turkish Cypriots US$9.706 and Greek Cypriots about US$24.200.

 

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