What opinion polls say
Remarks by Gustave Feissel about aiming for what is achievable rather than desirable makes it an appropriate moment to revisit research carried out in at the turn of the year among Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, which found that there was room for manoeuvre in both communities on even the trickiest of issues.
For example, some 79% of Turkish Cypriots agreed that “the Turkish army is here to protect us” but 83% of Greek Cypriots reject unilateral intervention rights.
There is room for compromise, however, where those intervention rights are strictly limited or amended.
While 49% of Turkish Cypriots find the eventual withdrawal of all troops unacceptable, this proportion falls to 30% when Greek and Turkish troops become part of an integrated European Security Force when Turkey joins the EU.
As for business, 63% of Turkish Cypriots would either tolerate or support Greek Cypriots having the right to purchase property within 6-9 years (compared with 15 years under Annan V), as long as most property remained in Turkish Cypriot hands (fear of dominance is also very strong).
A 58% majority of Turkish Cypriots also supports joint business ventures.
Questions to Greek Cypriots highlighted that although a majority favours more territory being returned “the balance is definitely in favour of further improvements in property rights, rather than on territorial adjustment.”
Encouragingly, only 22% of Turkish Cypriots would strongly object to Greek Cypriots getting back more property and 40% would strongly support it. In addition, 39% of Turkish Cypriots support residency rights sooner than under Annan V.
Some 58% of Turkish Cypriots find it “absolutely essential” that Turkish nationals not entitled to stay under current Turkish Cypriot rules must leave the island and a majority in both communities supports limiting future immigration of Turkish nationals.
There is also room for compromise over “administrative functionality” (favoured by Greek Cypriots) versus “political equality” (favoured by Turkish Cypriots).
Although in one question 67.2% of Turkish Cypriots said that they would prefer veto powers even if this risked deadlocks, 57.4% would either tolerate or support the “Senate Special Majority” in the Annan Plan (two-fifths of senators from each state plus a simple majority of deputies) applying only in the most essential cases, and for normal qualified majority to apply otherwise.
In what might be a surprising result for some, a bicommunal federation is supported or tolerated by a more than 75% of both communities. A majority on both sides favours more federal powers over education and social policy (particularly for communities living in the other constituent state), while 73% would either tolerate or support federally funded and controlled bicommunal schools.
The report, which covers a great many other issues, concludes that satisfying the moderate majorities would produce a Yes of about 67% from both communities.
The research, analysed by political scientist, Alexandros Lordos, was conducted in September 2004 by CYMAR Research among 1,000 Greek Cypriots and in January 2005 by KADEM Social Research among 700 Turkish Cypriots. It can be found at www.cypruspolls.org.
