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By Andrestinos N. Papadopoulos, Ambassador a.h.
It all started when Turkey decided to implement the “neo-Ottoman” policy of her Foreign Minister Ahmet Davoutoglou, which obliged her to chose between Israel and the Arab world. The ambition of Prime Minister Erdogan to play a leading role in the region gave priority to the Arabs. The consequence of this choice was the gradual estrangement of Turkey from Israel, which started in 2009 at the Economic Forum of Davos and ended with last year’s events concerning the killing of nine persons on the Turkish ship “Mavi Marmara”, which tried to break the blockade of Gaza.
The reaction of Israel took the form of a further strengthening of its relations with Greece and Cyprus, offering better strategic perspectives and access to Europe. Common purpose of Greece and Israel, as agreed at the highest level, is the stability and security in the Eastern Mediterranean, excluding antagonism with the countries of the Arab world and Turkey. Within this framework, a memorandum of military co-operation was signed between the two countries, during the recent visit of the Greek Defence Minister to Israel.
In the case of Cyprus, the bilateral relations had a spectacular development which was crowned by the visit of the President of Cyprus to Israel and the forthcoming visit of the Israeli President to Cyprus. Most important, however, is the signing between the two countries of the agreement for the delimitation of their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) and the co-operation in oil and gas exploration of the Cypriot EEZ, which was undertook by the American company “Noble Energy”. This sparked the strong reaction of Turkey, which in connection with her other demands concerning the “Mavi Marmara” case (pardon, compensation to families and lifting of the blockade of Gaza) decided to expel the Israeli Ambassador to Turkey, freeze the defence trade with Israel and step up patrols in the Eastern Mediterranean. Moreover, she threatened to take steps with a view to hindering the “unilateral” exploitation of natural resources in this region by Israel and Cyprus.
As far as Cyprus is concerned, the threats were accompanied by the decision to sign a delimitation of the EEZ and exploration agreement with the breakaway “state”, in case Cyprus proceeds with the extraction of hydrocarbon deposits in Block 12 of its EEZ. This time, the confirmation of the sovereign rights of the Republic of Cyprus to exploit its natural resources was general. The EU repeatedly asked Turkey to refrain from any kind of threats and stressed the sovereign right of EU member states to enter into bilateral agreements in accordance with the EU acquis and international law, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. A similar position was taken by the European Popular Party and the Socialists of the European Parliament. Most importantly, the United States, Russia, the UK and other countries defended the sovereign right of Cyprus to exploit its natural resources, while Greece stated that any attack against Cyprus will be considered as an attack against Greece.
Explanation of this support for Cyprus is to be found in the interest of Europe becoming independent of Russian gas. On the other hand, Noble Energy is an American company proceeding in coordination with the US Department of State and the American Embassy in Nicosia. It would have been naive to believe the United States would have wished to gain the Arabs via Turkey, when Ankara relinquished her former dictator friends, adjusting her policy in order to gain the Arab public opinion which certainly registered negatively this abrupt and interest-oriented change.
In actual fact, the “Arab Spring” overturned the calculations of Ankara. Believing that there was a political vacuum in the affected countries, Premier Erdogan rushed to fill it, before the prevalence of democratic institutions. For this purpose, he undertook a trip to Egypt, Tunisia and Libya. Turning up the heat against Israel a notch and supporting the interests of the Palestinians, Erdogan aimed at expanding the influence of Turkey in the region. He overlooked, however, the fact that the natural leaders of the Arab world are Egypt and Saudi Arabia. He was reminded of this reality by the “Freedom and Justice Party” of the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, which stated its opposition to a leading role of Turkey in the region. In this respect, the cancellation of Erdogan’s trip to the Gaza Strip is not irrelevant. In general, the Arabs do not forget the economic, linguistic and cultural oppression which they suffered during the Ottoman Empire. At present, they would have preferred Turkey to counter-balance Shiite Iran.
Several interpretations were put forward to explain the reasons which led the Turkish Premier to adopt this policy. We mention his drive to strengthen his position, in order to bring about the necessary constitutional changes, and his pursuit to curtail the influence of the army generals in formulating Turkey’s foreign policy. It is obvious, however, that Recep Tayyip Erdogan mainly aims at promoting Turkey as a political power in the Arab world and spreading her influence on the new generation of the Arab youth. Supportive of this aim is the feud with Israel which is used as a pretext to build up naval patrols in the seas between Israel and Cyprus, with a view to hindering the collaboration of the two countries in the energy field.
In any event, Cyprus should face the situation in cold blood and being conscious of its geostrategic importance, proceed steadily towards a substantive co-operation with Israel in all fields. Moreover, Cyprus as a member of the EU, and given the support extended by the EU to the decision to exploit its natural resources, should also seek European involvement in the exploitation of its natural gas deposits. The economic, political and other benefits will be immense and will certainly serve as a shield against the threats of Turkey. Concerning, now, the Turkish threats, Cyprus should undertake an international informative campaign of its position, which is based on International Law, and in particular the Convention on the Law of the Sea. It augurs well that many have already adopted Cyprus’ stand.
