By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
It has been a rollercoaster week defined by heightened trade uncertainty, yield curve inversions and global recession fears.
The “risk off, risk on” pendulum swung back and forth as investors grappled with conflicting signals on the US-China trade front, disappointing economic data from China and Germany and depressed oil prices.
Some semblance of stability was returning to Asian markets on Friday after China hinted at more fiscal support for its economy. While European markets opened cautiously higher as investors closely monitored the Treasury yields, gains may be limited by the general unease and uncertainty which is shrouding financial markets.
All eyes remain on the yield curve…
History was made this week after the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell below 2% for the first time ever.
Market players offloaded riskier assets like a hot potato and rushed to perceived safe havens like bonds and Gold as trade tensions and global growth fears promoted risk aversion. Although treasury yields were climbing away from record lows on Friday as some tranquillity returns to markets, the movements in the bond markets are poised to remain on investors radars in the week ahead.
Dollar maintains grip on iron throne
King Dollar has appreciated against almost every G10 currency this week, excluding the British Pound and Australian Dollar.
The Dollar’s positive performance suggests that it is still viewed as a destination of safety amid trade disputes, geopolitical tensions and global growth concerns. Appetite towards the Greenback was sweetened further on Thursday after US retail sales jumped by 0.7% in July, which eased concerns about the health of the US economy. I expect the Dollar Index to push higher based on price action, as the economic calendar for the United States is void of Tier 1 economic releases on Friday.
As regards the technical picture, the Dollar Index is bullish on the daily charts. The intraday break above 98.20 should encourage a move higher towards 98.40.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold prices depreciated slightly on Friday morning, but were headed for a third consecutive weekly gain thanks to global recession fears, uncertainty over US-China trade developments and falling US bond yields.
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Gold bulls remain firmly in the driver’s seat and are set to switch into higher gear as geopolitical risk factors and lower interest rates across the world send investors stampeding towards the precious metal.
Focusing on the technical picture, Gold is heavily bullish on the weekly charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows.
A weekly close above $1500 should open the doors towards $1535 and $1550, respectively.
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