Russia, the world's biggest non-OPEC exporter, could vow to curb supply in line with deep cuts OPEC is expected to agree in Algeria next week as it seeks to gain political clout, but its production is declining anyway.
Although Moscow has hinted it could join the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, most analysts say it has no real interest in becoming a member.
Moscow could flag a cut of several hundred thousands barrels per day from next year, analysts and industry insiders say, which would match a small percentage drop in output forecast as cash-strapped producers fail to replace mature fields.
"Cutting production is not difficult. It is falling anyway," said a government source, who asked not to be named.
He doubted Russia would formally seek membership, although a second government source said there was an outside chance.
"One cannot rule out (Prime Minister Vladimir) Putin taking a last-minute decision when he sends (his deputy Igor) Sechin to Algeria next week. But we in the government know nothing about formal membership," the second source told Reuters.
President Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday Russia would do anything, from cutting oil production to joining OPEC, to defend its national interests and push up energy prices.
After months of talks between OPEC and Moscow, his statement on Thursday was the first to suggest formal membership.
Moscow last offered to cooperate with OPEC cuts to prop up prices after the Sept. 11 terror attacks of 2001 pushed the oil market lower, but its compliance was unconvincing.
Its output rose to a peak of almost 10 million barrels per day (bpd), occasionally surpassing that of Saudi Arabia, although its exports have been much lower at around four million bpd.
NEEDS THE MONEY
Russia is more dependent on its oil revenue than ever. Like many of OPEC's 12 members, it needs prices above $70 per barrel to balance its budget, support its flagging economy and currency and avoid potential social unrest.
It could also view deeper ties with OPEC as a way of enhancing its international influence, but full membership might irritate some of the western partners it is cultivating.
"The U.S. views OPEC as an illegal cartel, so Russia joining would considerably politicise the relationship with OPEC and would be a major negative as the new U.S. President takes office," said Chris Weafer from UralSib brokerage.
Both Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Putin said they hoped relations with the United States, which worsened dramatically after Moscow's war with Georgia in August, would improve.
"The EU, with whom Russia is hoping to expand trade and investment ties, would also be less than pleased if such a move were to push the price of energy higher at a time when the global economy is struggling," said Weafer.
Whereas Gulf OPEC producers can easily switch supply on and off, Russia also has to consider that any production it shuts in could be difficult and expensive to restore, especially in Siberia.
Dmitry Lukashov from Swiss bank UBS said the easiest way for Russia to execute a cut would be just to do nothing in terms of oil tax regulation, spurring a drop in oil production.
"OPEC membership would assume a permanent obligation to restrain production, which could undermine the basic tenets of a privately-owned sector," he said.
The state has effective control of only around a half of Russia's overall production.
On its side, OPEC knows from past experience that Moscow's willingness to cooperate evaporates as soon as prices start to recover or Russian production begins to rise.
