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WTI consolidates above $70, close to month-high

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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude oscillates in a narrow trading band, just above mid-$70.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday and remains within the striking distance of a three-week top touched the previous day.

Israel’s airstrikes against Iranian-backed Hezbollah sites in Lebanon killed nearly 500 people on Monday and raises the risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East.

This may impact supply in the key oil producing region, which, along with worries that a tropical storm may impact output in the US, turn out to be key factors acting as a tailwind for the black liquid.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar struggles to capitalise on its recent bounce from the YTD low touched in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s jumbo interest rate cut last week and bets for more aggressive policy easing going forward. This is seen underpinning demand for USD-denominated commodities and lending some support to crude oil prices.

The upside, however, remains capped amid a bleak global economic outlook.

Fears resurfaced after the flash PMIs released on Monday showed business activity in the Eurozone unexpectedly contracted sharply in September. This comes on top of concerns about fuel consumption in China – the world’s largest oil importer – and acts as a headwind for the commodity.

The aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets around crude oil prices as traders opt to wait for more cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path.

Hence, the focus will remain on speeches by influential FOMC members and the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday.

(Source: OANDA)