With heatwaves likely to last longer and become more frequent the number of people dying in such extreme conditions will only get worse unless something is done to buffer the effects of climate change.
The number of killer heatwaves is likely to rise sharply in some regions by 2080 if policymakers fail to improve climate and health policies, according to the results of a study.
Deaths caused by heatwaves could increase dramatically in tropical and subtropical regions, the study found, followed closely by Australia, Europe and the United States.
Published in the journal PLOS Medicine, the study’s results suggest stricter policies should be applied to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, because lower greenhouse gas emissions are linked with fewer deaths due to heatwaves.
Antonio Gasparrini, an expert from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who co-led the research, said several countries around the world are currently being hit by deadly heatwaves and it was “highly likely” that heatwave frequency and severity would increase under a changing climate.
The researchers said they hoped their research, which used mathematical modelling, would help decision makers in planning strategies for climate change, according to Reuters.
The model used different scenarios characterized by levels of greenhouse gas emissions, preparedness and adaption strategies, as well as population density to estimate the number of deaths related to heatwaves in 412 communities across 20 countries from 2031 to 2080.
The results found that compared with the period 1971 to 2020 and under the extreme scenario, the Philippines would suffer 12 times more excess deaths caused by heatwaves in 2031 to 2080.
Under the same scenario, Australia and the United States could face five times more excess deaths, with Britain potentially seeing four times more excess deaths from heatwaves in the same period.
These predictions improved, however, when scenarios were modelled with policies implemented to fulfil the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.
Their work had some limitations, since it could model only relatively simple assumptions of how countries may or may not adapt climate policies.
