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Monday night’s ‘temporary’ deadlock (in the words of DISY leader Averof Neophytou) has just transformed the Cyprus problem from a “waiting game” to a dangerous game, with the potential collapse of the talks feeding the giant egos of the entire rejectionist front.
There are two ways to see it: it’s either Game Over, you get your coin back and you go home, or, the hard bargaining has just started. Is Nicos Anastasiades the dumbest of all presidents we have had so far, or is he the smartest gambler on the poker table, forcing the other side to reveal its hand?
With the territorial issue, population return and withdrawal of guarantees as the thorniest of all subjects raised during discussions in Cyprus or in Switzerland, the red lines have been drawn and no-go areas have been flagged. But that doesn’t necessary mean it’s the end of the road, as both sides have been dabbling with numbers for a few weeks, obviously preparing their communities for harsh compromises.
On the orders of Ankara, Mustafa Akinci has already started the blame game, saying that the talks stalled on the return of Morphou, with the Greek Cypriots demanding the town back unconditionally and the Turkish Cypriots insisting they will never return it.
But is that the essence of the argument, or perhaps do greater interests and manipulations come into play?
As Greece struggles to recover from its economic crisis, which is also affecting the combat-readiness of it armed forces, it wants out, saying that the guarantees included in the treaty of establishment way back in 1960 were no longer necessary.
On the other hand, Turkey is trying to prove mightier by the day and has realised that with the leadership turmoil having taken over the entire EU, in the face of growing discontent and nationalism, it can push its own agenda, first in Syria, then with Israel and the gas pipelines to Europe, and finally on Cyprus, using the Union’s reluctance to resume accession negotiations as an excuse to scupper the talks. Ultimately, it will want to annex the north and get rid of all ties with Europe, as it warms to Russia.
But an escalation of the military actions in Syria and northern Iraq could also lead to a direct conflict with Russia, which Ankara does not want to repeat.
If the Cyprus problem is to b solved, there is hard work ahead, with a lot of belly aching and compromises.
It is up to the two leaders to try and save the process and prevent the talks from collapsing altogether, an outcome that would simply fuel the gargantuan egos of the rejections who, to date, have not offered an iota of a suggestion or a proposal to get the process moving.
