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BY TOM LAWRENCE
In a few days’ time the rest of the world will pay no attention at all as the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders meet UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon for the umpteenth time in a show that diminishes Mr Ban just that little bit more every time it happens.
If anyone in this process had any guts, this farce would be over by now, either because the two leaders would have had the guts to solve the Cyprus problem or because UN envoy Alexander Downer would have had the cojones to call their bluff and end it all.
But that isn’t going to happen, despite the fact that Greek Cypriot leader Demetris Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Dervish Eroglu will go to their fancy meeting place in the US on Sunday with none of what Mr Ban had asked them to bring last July.
They were supposed to come to an agreement on all core issues in the following areas: governance, property, territory, (internal) security, EU and economy. When it became clear that this was not going to be possible, the bar was lowered and they aimed to agreement on voting for the president, as well as some core EU and economic matters.
When that didn’t happen the lowest hanging fruit was an agreement on core economic issues. But even that is not going to happen, not because one of the teams was incarcerated for a week but because the two sides have no interest in coming to an agreement on anything.
Why is that? Because of one simple truth which no one wants to admit but which becomes clear when you look closely at how these people negotiate.
The Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots do not want to live together (why should they after living apart for so many years?). This means that deep down they do not want a bicommunal federation.
They do not want to share power together (why should they when all polls show they don’t trust each other an inch?) This means that Greek Cypriots do not really want political equality and the Turkish Cypriots do not really want a federation.
In fact everything about this “bi-zonal bi-communal federation with political equality, as defined by relevant Security Council resolutions … with a single international personality” declared on 23 May 2008 is a joke. Either one side doesn’t believe in it or the other doesn’t.
So bizonal bicommunal is a dead duck. But the UN will never have the guts to say so out loud.
Why? Because if you admit that bizonal bicommunal is dead, then you have to think about alternatives. And the only alternatives are unitary state (anathema to Turkish Cypriots, who think they will be obliterated) or two states (anathema to Greek Cypriots, who see it as awarding the invader).
One other possible reason is that a situation of bad-faith negotiations is just that little bit less likely to lead to military conflict over gas than no negotiations at all. Precisely because the UN is in more contact with the sides during the talks than it is when there are no talks, it can use its influence to get everyone to calm down.
Downer can of course walk off at any time. But his long-suffering team has no choice but to flog a dead horse over and over and over and over again.
