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In this time of great economic uncertainty and lack of liquidity, real estate companies are looking for ways to effectively manage risk, streamline operations and enhance their business relationships so they can hit the ground running when markets begin to stabilise, according to Howard Roth, Global and Americas Real Estate Leader, Ernst & Young.
The 2009 Ernst & Young real estate business risk report, produced in conjunction with strategy consultancy Oxford Analytica, lists the ten top business risks faced by the industry as ranked by leading sector analysts:
1. Continued uncertainty and impact of the credit crunch – tighter credit is just one threat to real estate; the economic downturn is affecting commercial vacancy rates as well as property valuations.
2. Global economic and market fluctuations – due to capital flows and business expansion, the real estate industry has become a truly global industry and, as such, is increasingly susceptible to global market fluctuations.
3. Impact of aging or inadequate infrastructure – particularly in the US, but also in other markets, a lack of key transit and utility infrastructure is a threat to growth.
4. A global war for talent – globalisation of business has also created a worldwide talent pool with countries forced to compete for human capital.
5. Changing demographics – aging and urbanising populations are changing competitive dynamics and creating new markets.
6. Inability to find and exploit non-traditional opportunities – with competition increasing worldwide from sovereign wealth funds and others, many investors face a tough time sourcing new deals that will meet return expectations.
7. Pricing uncertainty – with few transactions taking place in the real estate market, valuations are a problem for existing owners, as well as buyers and sellers.
8. Green revolution, sustainability and climate change – real estate is at the forefront of the green movement with pressures intensifying to build and operate in sustainable ways and minimise the carbon footprint throughout all types of real estate.
9. Economic vulnerability and regulatory risks – developing markets are a key focus for global real estate firms but regulatory risk in these markets is constantly changing as authorities seek to jump start economies.
10. Increasing energy costs – few analysts expect more than a temporary respite from high oil prices as new supply will be unable to meet renewed demand.
“There will be a fundamental shift back to traditional real estate underwriting principles, including comprehensive cash flow analysis and prudent levels of debt and equity in consummating real estate transactions. This ‘back to basics’ movement will lead to the greater transparency necessary to restore confidence between buyers and sellers,” said Roth.
The real estate sector has felt the tightening conditions in credit markets perhaps more than any other due to its heavy reliance on capital. Financial conditions for projects are undoubtedly worsening and the current financial markets landscape is expected to persist for the next couple of years.
According to Mark Costello, America’s Leader of Ernst & Young's construction and real estate advisory services practice, “Real estate is typically the second highest cost item on an income statement after payroll and so provides excellent opportunities for companies to unlock hidden value, particularly through a back-to-basics approach.”
On the construction side, two out of three capital projects are currently over budget or behind schedule, according to Malcolm Bairstow, Ernst & Young’s Global Advisory Services Leader for the real estate and construction sectors.
“Yet, deploying risk mitigation or accelerated delivery methods after careful assessment of a project can also reduce risk and cost and bring in projects on time and on budget,” Bairstow added.
