By Ingrid Melander
The Greek government on Monday avoided being forced to call snap elections over a bribe scandal but dissent among its own ranks combined with a bleak economic outlook mean its troubles are nowhere near over.
Here are key issues to watch:
FRAGILE MAJORITY
Deputies decided on Monday Aristotle Pavlides, a ruling New Democracy party MP and former Aegean minister, will not stand trial on bribery charges.
But some deputies from the ruling party, which has only a one-seat majority in the 300-seat assembly, refused to close ranks around Pavlides and cast a blank ballot, showing cracks in the government's solidarity.
More MPs — 146 of them — voted to send him to trial but fell short of the 151 majority required for the trial, while 144 supported him and eight cast a blank ballot.
The vote means Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis may face internal dissent at a time when he needs full support from his majority to shore up the crisis-hit economy and take unpopular measures to abide by European Union dictates.
ELECTIONS
The next election would normally be held by September 2011 but snap polls are expected by March next year when parliament needs a two-thirds majority to elect a president.
Opposition parties have made clear they will not back the government's candidate.
So it is rather a matter of when, not if, the government will call early elections.
The ruling party lags behind the main opposition socialist party by up to 7 points in opinion polls, but it is unclear if the socialist opposition would gather enough of the popular vote to rule alone. If not, then coalitions would be sought.
ECONOMIC TROUBLES
A government weakened by internal dissent would have trouble tackling social unrest and demands for measures to cushion the impact of the crisis when its coffers are empty, its large debt growing and it has a 2010 deadline to respect an EU deficit cap it has breached repeatedly.
Analysts say it will be very hard for Greece to respect the 2010 deadline or act to reform its economy. Greece needs to make budget, pension and labour market reforms, and fight tax evasion, analysts and the Bank of Greece say.
Both the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund forecast a recession in Greece this year. The European Commission revised its forecast sharply down on Monday to -0.9 percent GDP growth in 2009 from 2.5 percent previously.
Greece's debt is the second-largest in the euro zone. The EU Commission sees it reaching 103.4 percent of the GDP this year.
SCANDAL-PLAGUED
The shipping scandal, in which a ship-owner testified a Pavlides aide demanded bribes to grant a contract to run subsidised ferry routes, was the closest to bringing the government down. But it was only one in a long list.
The government was first elected by a landslide in 2004 by voters tired of years of socialist scandals. But it has been rocked by scandals in its five years in power [ID:nLT867547] and after the vote over Pavlides it will need to convince disgruntled voters that it is serious about fighting corruption.
