Prospects improving for Iran
Iran will be a pressing foreign policy issue for American President-elect Barack Obama when he takes office, three decades after the Iranian revolution to oust the U.S.-back shah and which led to years of hostility.
Following are scenarios — based on comments by analysts, Iranian officials and politicians — about how the process of rebuilding ties could evolve after Obama takes over:
IRAN'S CONCERNS
The public focus for the row with Washington is Iran's disputed nuclear work. But Iranian officials frequently refer to U.S. efforts to undermine the ruling system, highlighting that Iran's deepest concern is that the United States wants "regime change". Tehran wants Washington to recognise the legitimacy of its clerical establishment, acknowledge the Islamic Republic's status as a regional power and provide security guarantees to ensure the future of its system of government.
OBAMA'S POLICIES
Obama favours tough-minded diplomacy with Tehran, which the West accuses of trying to acquire nuclear bombs despite Iran's denials. Obama has said he is ready to deal directly with Iran, something his predecessor largely rejected. Obama has talked of incentives, as well as tougher sanctions if Iran does not stop its nuclear work. His reference to "carrot and sticks", a strategy Iran rejects, could quickly bury prospects for talks. Iran has often said it would not have talks with preconditions.
DECISION-MAKING
Ultimate authority in Iran lies not with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who often rails against the West, but with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He has ruled out a resumption of ties until Washington makes "fundamental changes in its policies towards Iran". Alongside core concerns about the survival of the ruling system, that could also include dropping charges about Tehran's nuclear work and unfreezing Iranian assets seized after the 1979 revolution that toppled the U.S.-backed shah.
These could all form part of a so-called "Grand Bargain" to resolve outstanding differences. Iran may find such an offer more attractive now that its regional influence has been reduced by a more stable Iraq and falling oil revenues. But, by effectively setting its own preconditions, Tehran could deter overtures by Washington.
ISRAELI THREATS
Washington is not alone in worrying about Iran. Israel, the only Middle East state believed to have an atomic arsenal, has said Iran's nuclear plans are an "existential threat" to the Jewish state.
Privately, some senior Iranian officials have said the authorities are more worried Israel would launch a strike, than the United States. Speculation was fuelled last year by an Israeli attack on Syria and reports of long-range Israeli bombing exercises. If Israel attacked without U.S. backing, Washington would still probably be dragged into any conflict.
Iran's activities are also a concern for Gulf Arab states, which sit on oil reserves vital to the world economy. The closer Tehran is perceived to be to a mastering a bomb the greater the prospect of a regional arms race.
POLITICAL FACTIONS
Khamenei's word will be final but he tends to reach conclusions based on consensus, taking into account influential figures and groups in Iran's multi-layered system of rule.
Some political factions are stern opponents of renewing U.S. ties that could bring the kind of "corrupt" Western influence that diehard revolutionaries fought to expel from Iran when they ousted the U.S.-backed shah in 1979.
But engagement with the United States is backed by Iran's pro-reform politicians and even some conservatives, including Ahmadinejad, who has hinted at his interest by writing a letter to Bush and, unusually, congratulating Obama on his election.
Ahmadinejad is expected to run for re-election in June and that race could influence, though not decide, how any talks evolve.
The politician who re-establishes dialogue with the world's only superpower could win a valuable political prize, as the move would likely be backed by many Iranians tired of isolation.
WHAT NEXT?
After three decades of mutual hostility, resuming ties will probably demand small steps to gradually build confidence.
Bush's administration talked of sending U.S. diplomats to Iran for the first time since ties were cut after students seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979 and took Americans hostage. The diplomats would staff an interests section now run by the Swiss embassy. That could be an opening step for Obama.
Some Iranian politicians believe any U.S. offer will have to include security guarantees, the acknowledgement of Iran's regional status and recognition of its legitimacy for Iran to consider addressing U.S. concerns over its nuclear work, alleged support for terrorist groups and opposition to Israel.
Talks over such a "Grand Bargain" would almost certainly require time and patience that Iranian leaders have shown in abundance but which a first-term U.S. president — faced with an economic crisis, a Middle East conflict and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan — could find tougher to muster.
