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Dr. Jim Leontiades
The CIIM Business School
Never was there a president elected with higher hopes, not only from his own country but from the world at large. One observer suggested that American voters had not merely elected a president, "they think he's been elected saviour"
The sense of new hope and high expectations are particularly evident in Europe which has perhaps had more than its share of conflicts and frustrations with the present administration. But how realistic are these hopes? Will there be a letdown and sense of disappointment as Mr. Obama faces the many difficult problems which all agree will meet him upon taking office.
Along with many others,I wish the new president every success. At the same time let us recognize that Mr Obama' will have to make difficult decisions that will not please everyone. Europeans have particular cause for concern. Throughout its history, American foreign policy has been Eurocentric. International politics have been conducted mainly across the North Atlantic. Is that about to change? First, there is the fact that America will soon be governed by a president whose background is the least European of any previous president.
Mr. Obama will be the first American president who can trace part of his ancestry to Africa rather than Europe. Mr Obama's formative years were largely spent in regions (Indonesia and Hawaii) closer to Asia than to Europe. Also, he has been elected by an American constituency which is ethnically less European than any in history. In the modern era there have been seismic changes in the composition of the American population. Americans of European ancestry make up a rapidly decreasing proportion of the population. Recent migrants have come predominantly from Latin America and Asia. Demographers estimate that Americans whose roots trace to Europe will soon (within roughly three decades) be a minority, outnumbered by those originating from non-European countries.
Given this background, there is every possibility that, Mr Obama's and world view may have less of the traditional European orientation. It may well concern itself more with Asia and Africa than past American Administrations. Europe will still remain key but the likelihood that there will be a significant shift, toward a lower priority for European affairs than in the past cannot be dismissed.
Friction points
There are a number of issues that represent likely "friction points", issues and decisions that Mr. Obama will need to address early in his administration which are likely to put strains on the European relationship:
Afghanistan: The new president elect has already committed himself to an increase in United States troops in Afghanistan. The previous administration has spent much of its diplomatic capital urging European powers to increase their commitment to what it saw as a joint NATO effort. Apart from the British, the response of the European powers has disappointed the Bush administration. Mr. Obama will find it difficult not to make the same request, particularly in light of the promised American troop increase. It will not be an easy decision for the European powers. They will want to start out on a positive footing with the new president but the request will not be popular with their own constituencies.
World Trade Talks: The Doha round of world trade talks has been dragging on for years, with little result. Two of the major protagonists have been the USA and the European Union. Each has blamed the other for the failure to bring about an agreement which satisfies the demands of the developing countries. Mr. Obama will bring with him new concerns and new pressures. He has promised the unions that he will protect the jobs of American workers. This further complicates what has already proved to be a source of friction relative to the demands of the European Union.
Iran: Mr. Obama has called for an international effort to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Major efforts have been made in the past in coordination with America's European allies. Whether the cooperation will hold in the future will depend on what new initiatives Mr. Obama brings to the table.
Africa: America's focus on Europe will also have to compete with new developments in other parts of the world. It is gradually dawning on many in the West that hundreds of thousands of Africans have been dying in revolutions and from of armed gangs. Millions have been dying there from disease and drought. The situation is a potential breeding ground for terrorism. There is every likelihood that Mr. Obama will shift American commitments and priorities in this direction. The question is how far.
Yes, Obama will bring change but change comes in different forms. Many countries will disagree on the type of change they would like to see. This is to be expected. Even within the European Union there are major disagreements on the nature of change the members countries desire. President Obama will not be able to please everyone.
