Grain Prices Stabilizing, Margins Strong but Tightening
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Rabobank has published a new report on the global poultry industry, forecasting a shift to bearish conditions in all markets except the U.S.
In the report, the bank’s Food & Agribusiness Research team says that with the notable exception of the U.S., bullish poultry market conditions are turning bearish due to recent grain price hikes caused by turmoil in Ukraine and El Niño-related worries. Rabobank says that abrupt increases in feed prices (up 10%-15% vs. earlier expectations), avian influenza outbreaks in China, and a weaker Asian economy are expected to affect margins in Q2.
“The effect on companies hinges on their regional market balance and longer term forward-hedging,” explained Rabobank analyst Nan-Dirk Mulder. “A slowdown in global trade volumes and lower product prices, especially for leg quarters, will affect companies in international trade and lead to shifts in global trade streams. Brazil is likely to be affected the most, while Thailand is likely to benefit due to its recent return in the Japanese raw chicken market.”
Additional major shifts in trade streams are expected this coming quarter, including pending anti-dumping duties on European Union poultry trade in South Africa, a new temporary free trade agreement granting Ukraine access to the EU market via quotas, and the potential return of exports from the United States to Chinese markets. These developments, taking place under weak global trade conditions in a traditionally weak season for chicken meat, could all have a large impact on global poultry trade.
For more information about this publication please contact its author Nan-Dirk Mulder: firstname.lastname@example.org, +31 30 71 23822.
Rabobank’s report on the global poultry industry is available to media upon request.
Rabobank Group is a global financial services leader providing wholesale and retail banking, leasing, real estate services, and renewable energy project financing. Founded over a century ago, Rabobank is one of the largest banks in the world, with nearly $1 trillion in assets and operations in more than 40 countries. In North America, Rabobank is a premier bank to the food, beverage and agribusiness industry. Rabobank’s Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory team is comprised of more than 80 analysts around the world who provide expert analysis, insight and counsel to Rabobank clients about trends, issues and developments in all sectors of agriculture. www.rabobank.com/f&a
For a social media-ready version of this press release:
Follow us on Twitter: @rabofoodagri
Source: Rabobank Group