Business & Economy

Concerns in Portugal

11 July, 2014

Daily Market Report

Βy Jameel Ahmad, Chief Market Analyst at FXTM

The surprising bullish momentum for the EURUSD abruptly ran out of steam yesterday, with the European markets hit by emerging concerns of accounting irregularities at the parent group of one of Portugal’s largest banks. The EURUSD declined by up to 60 pips throughout the day and concluded trading at 1.3608.

Looking ahead to today, we are expecting final confirmation of Germany’s June inflation readings. However, this surprising story in Portugal is unlikely to disappear from the headlines and, if it continues to weigh on the European markets, further pressure will be felt in the EURUSD.

Moving onto the GBPUSD and as widely anticipated, optimists hoping for a surprise Bank of England (BoE) rate increase were left disappointed. The BoE kept interest rates unchanged at a record low 0.5%, alongside maintaining the quantitative easing program at £375bn. As the day progressed, the GBPUSD lowered by around 50 pips, before concluding trading at 1.7131.

Where the pair progresses to from here remains to be seen. The GBPUSD has formulated a solid support level around the 1.7101 area over the past week. However, next Tuesday’s annualised June CPI readings should provide an indication. For over the past year, the BoE have viewed UK inflation levels as a key influential factor behind considering a rate hike. The BoE’s threshold CPI target remains at 2%, but fell last month to an annualised five-year low of 1.5%.

In the past week, both BoE Deputy Governor Sir Jon Cunliffe and soon to become Deputy BoE Governor Minouche Shafik, have strongly hinted that a rate increase is dependent on the capacity for the UK economy to grow before experiencing inflation pressures. Unless this morning’s UK Construction Output announcement surprises, this pair is unlikely to experience major movement until Tuesday’s CPI release. In the meantime, the pair will likely continue to move around this newly formed 1.7101 support level.

The USDJPY continued its recent devaluation and concluded trading yesterday at 101.355. The JPY found support as a safe-haven currency in response to the concerns in the European markets. Throughout yesterday, the USDJPY depreciated by around 60 pips but, in following a recent trend, moves to the downside below 101 remained limited.

With the exception of Friday’s US Federal Reserve budget announcement, economic releases for this pair are low today. Although, with concerns in the European markets continuing, the JPY could again find itself used as a safe-haven in which case, USDJPY support levels can be found at 101.172 and 101.050.

Taking a look at the Aussie, the AUDUSD experienced its first daily loss this week and concluded trading at 0.9394. Thursday’s Australian domestic employment report created confusion and, as a result, the AUDUSD experienced volatility. On announcement, it appeared that the number of people employed last month increased by 16,000 and this positive headline caused the AUDUSD to spike to a weekly high of 0.9455.

However on reflection of the employment report, it emerged that the advancement in the number of people employed was correlated to an increase in part-time vacancies. Full time employment constituted only 3,800 of the jobs gained, which is not overly encouraging for the Australian employment sector. As today progresses, the AUDUSD will likely continue to move lower and perhaps record its second consecutive day of losses. A frequently used dynamic support level for the AUDUSD is located at 0.9363.

Finally, there were some signs of the bullish NZDUSD momentum taking a breather, with the pair concluding trading at 0.8819. A 2011 high is still positioned at 0.8840. This milestone remains in reach and the slight currency devaluation experienced yesterday might not necessarily be linked to investors taking profit on the pair but potentially due to the surprising story in Portugal reducing demand for riskier assets, such as the Kiwi.

Remarkably, the RBNZ continue to offer a muted response regarding their rapid currency appreciation. This is the opposite to back in May, when the central bank threatened currency intervention. The RBNZ suggested that a higher NZD would become detrimental to both their fundamentals and inflation readings. Increased inflation levels are a major contributing factor behind the central bank hiking rates for three consecutive months.

The latest New Zealand CPI readings are announced on Tuesday evening.

The primary reason for investors purchasing the Kiwi, is due to an unconfirmed assumption in the markets that the RBNZ will automatically hike interest rates for a fourth consecutive month in July. However, the potential for a reduced CPI reading this Tuesday evening will raise suspicions that this is far from confirmed and limit expectations for a New Zealand rate hike. Perhaps this is why the RBNZ have so far chosen to offer a muted response to their currency appreciation this time around.

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